Trump Hit Economic “Overdrive” In May 2018

Trump Hit Economic “Overdrive” In May

The New York Times “Ran Out Of Words To Describe How Good The Jobs Numbers Are”

_______________­­___________ _­__

TOP TAKEAWAYS

·         Job creation beat expectations in May by adding 223,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, a rate only seen once since 1969.

·         The African-American unemployment rate decreased from 6.6 percent to a record 5.9 percent in May; the first time African-American unemployment has ever been recorded under 6 percent.

·         Consumer confidence continued to climb in May, reaching a 17-year high, and 67 percent of Americans now believe it is a good time to find a job; up 25 percent since Trump was elected.

·         Small business confidence is also at record highs, and a third plan to hire more employees this year.

·         Reaction to today’s jobs report:

o   The New York Times headline: “We Ran Out of Words to Describe How Good the Jobs Numbers Are.”

o   CNBC: Private sector job creation is “on fire.”

o   Wall Street Journal: “Signs of enduring strength for the labor market.”

o   CNN: “Good news for the country.”​

 o   Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal: “Incredible.”

·         Overview of recent monthly job creation:

o   May: 223,000 jobs added

o   April: 159,000 jobs added

o   March: 155,000 jobs added

o   Feb: 324,000 jobs added

o   Jan: 176,000 jobs added

o   Dec: 175,000 jobs added

o   Nov: 216,000 jobs added

o   Oct: 271,000 jobs added

___________________________

ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER STRONG JOBS REPORT

In May, The Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.8 Percent, Tied For The Lowest Rate In Fifty Years And The Lowest In Almost Twenty Years

The Unemployment Rate Decreased From 3.9 Percent To 3.8 Percent In May. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 6/1/18)

“The Unemployment Rate Has Matched Its Lowest Point In Half A Century,” The Only Other Time Since 1969 That Unemployment Was At 3.8 Percent Was In April 2000.“The unemployment rate has matched its lowest point in half a century. The Labor Department reported Friday that unemployment fell to 3.8% in May. The economy added 223,000 jobs, better than expected. Since 1969, the only other time unemployment has been this low was in April 2000.” (Nathaniel Meyersohn, “Unemployment Rate Matches Lowest Point In Half A Century,”CNN6/1/18)

The African-American Unemployment Rate Decreased From 6.6 To 5.9 Percent In May(Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 6/1/18)

  • Under President Trump, The African-American Unemployment Rate Has Decreased From 7.8 To 5.9 Percent(Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 6/1/18)

·         May Marks The First Time African-American Unemployment Has Ever Been Under 6 Percent. ( Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 6/1/18)

Unemployment Benefits Fell More Than Expected To 221,000 In May. “New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but claims for several states, including California and Virginia, were estimated. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended May 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims data for the prior week was unrevised.” (“US Weekly Jobless Claims Total 221,000, Vs 228,000 Expected,” CNBC, 5/31/18)

Overview Of Recent Monthly Job Creation. (“Employment, Hours, And Earnings From The Current Employment Statistics Survey (National),” Bureau Of Labor Statistics6/1/18)

  • May: 223,000 Jobs Added
  • April: 159,000 Jobs Added
  • March: 155,000 Jobs Added
  • Feb: 324,000 Jobs Added
  • Jan: 176,000 Jobs Added
  • Dec: 175,000 Jobs Added
  • Nov: 216,000 Jobs Added
  • Oct: 271,000 Jobs Added

Nonfarm Employment Increased By 223,000 Jobs In May, Bringing The Total Of Jobs Created Under President Trump To Almost 3 Million

Total Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 223,000 In May. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 6/1/18)

·         Total Nonfarm Payroll Has Increased By 2,966,000 Since President Trump Took Office. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics , Accessed 6/1/18)

PRAISE FOR THIS MONTH’S JOBS REPORT

This Month’s Unemployment Number Has Been Called “Incredible” And “Great”

The New York Times Headline: “We Ran Out Of Words To Describe How Good The Jobs Numbers Are.” (Neil Irwin, “We Ran Out Of Words To Describe How Good The Jobs Numbers Are,” The New York Times6/1/18)

The New York Times: The Economy Was In “Overdrive” In May. “The American economy roared into overdrive last month, delivering the strongest job gains since February. The report underscored other recent signs of strength, like robust personal income and spending data reported earlier this week. Indeed, by just about any measure, the labor market is very healthy. The unemployment rate for May was at lows not seen since the heady days of the dot-com bubble.” (Nelson D. Schwartz, “U.S. Added 223,000 Jobs In May; Unemployment At 3.8%,”The New York Times6/1/18)

CNBC’s Hampton Pearson Called Private Sector Job Creation “On Fire” And Noted That African-American Unemployment “The Lowest Since The Labor Department And BLS Began Tracking That Particular Statistic Starting Back To 1972.” CNBC’s HAMPTON PEARSON: “223,000 may non-farm payrolls increased by 223,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is 3.8%. That’s the lowest since April of 2008, average hourly earnings up 0.3% for the month 2.7% year over year we also have overall net upward revisions for the last two months an additional 15,000 more jobs than previously reported in May the private sector was on fire 218,000 new jobs added and the job gains were widespread, retail plus 31,000, health care up 29,000. Construction, plus 25,000. Professional and business services, 23,000 new hires as well. Only significant job losses, temporary help down about 7,800. That 3.8% unemployment rate basically happened because there were 281,000 fewer unemployed persons last month. The U6 unemployment rate, the so-called real unemployment rate, 7.6% lowest since May of 2001 black unemployment, a major benchmark here down to 5.9% from 6.6% in May. That 5.9% number is the lowest since the labor department and BLS began tracking that particular statistic starting back to 1972. The labor force participation rate, 62.7%. Average job gains over the last three months, 179,000 jobs per month. Back to you guys.” (CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” 6/1/18Click To Watch

The New York Times’ Senior Economic Correspondent Neil Irwin Called The Jobs Report Numbers “Great.” “+223k payrolls, unemployment rate down to 3.8%, avg hourly earnings +2.7% year-over-year. Great numbers.” (Neil Irwin, Twitter Feed6/1/18)

·         Irwin Went On To Say That The “Drop In Unemployment Rate Was For Good Reasons.” “Details of the household survey are good. More people employed, fewer unemployed = drop in unemployment rate was for good reasons.” (Neil Irwin, Twitter Feed6/1/18)

Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal Noted That The Unemployment Rate Is “Incredible.”“The unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since 1969. Incredible that it’s better than at any time during the 90s tech boom.” (Joe Weisenthal, Twitter Feed , 6/1/18)

The Associated Press: The U.S. “Extended A Streak Of Solid Hiring In May.” “U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and pushing the unemployment to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.” (Christopher Rugaber, “US Gains 223K Jobs; Unemployment At 18-Year Low Of 3.8 Pct.,” The Associated Press6/1/18)

CNN’s John Berman Called May’s Jobs Numbers “Good News For The Country.” CNN’s ALISYN CAMEROTA: “Okay we do have some breaking news for you, the Labor Department releasing the May jobs report just moments ago, and Christine Romans joins us now with the numbers.” CNN’s CHRISTINE ROMANS: “Strong numbers you guys, another month of strong numbers 7 ½ years not of job creation is a record stretch. 223,000 net new jobs created in the month of May. April was revised down a little bit but I wouldn’t get too worried about that. These are still strong numbers that show companies are hiring and they’re hiring kind of across the spectrum. The unemployment rate slipped down to 3.8%. That is the lowest we have seen since 2000. Another tenth of a percentage point there and we have the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. Not quite there yet but these are very good numbers. And they show you over the past ten years jobs have been created, the unemployment rate has been coming down and we are shaking off the worst of that financial crisis for sure. Retail jobs were strong here, health care. Every month I tell you guys this, across the spectrum in health care there are jobs to be had and manufacturing grew 18,000 jobs as well. We thought we might get a strong report because just before it came out, the president himself was saying he was looking forward to these jobs numbers. We know the White House can see these the night before but they can’t report what they are. At any rate this has got to be good news again for this White House because these are now some more than 3 million jobs created over the past couple of years, guys.” CNN’s JOHN BERMAN: “It good news for the country. When you see that much job growth, unemployment that low it’s just flat out good for the country.” ROMANS: “Wages 2.7%, that was a good number as well. Remember we want to see wages increasing. That number coming up a little bit. If you have so much job creation, at some point with companies saying they can’t find workers, wages have to rise.” (CNN’s “New Day,” 6/1/18)

Click To Watch

University Of Michigan Economist Justin Wolfers Called The Decline In The Unemployment Rate “Real” And “The Result Of More People Heading Back To Work And Finding Jobs.” “Household survey shows +293k jobs, which is roughly consistent with the headline from the payrolls number. It says the decline in the unemployment rate is ‘a real one’ — the result of more people heading back to work and finding jobs.” (Justin Wolfers,Twitter Feed6/1/18)

ON MAIN STREET, CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH AND CONFIDENCE IN A GROWING ECONOMY

Consumer Confidence Continued To Climb To A Record High In May

Consumer Confidence Hit A 17-Year High In May. “‘Consumer confidence increased in May after a modest decline in April,’ said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. ‘Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased to a 17-year high (March 2001, 167.5), suggesting that the level of economic growth in Q2 is likely to have improved from Q1.

Overall Confidence Remains At “Historically Strong Levels.” “Overall, confidence levels remain at historically strong levels and should continue to support solid consumer spending in the near-term.’” (Press Release, “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased In May,” The Conference Board, 5/29/18)

Sixty Seven Percent Of Americans Believe That Now Is A Good Time To Find A Job, Up 25 Percent Since President Trump Was Elected. “Sixty-seven percent of Americans believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest percentage in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.” (Jim Norman, “Optimism About Availability Of Good Jobs Hits New Heights,” Gallup, 5/21/18)

Consumer Spending Has Also Grown

American Consumers Increased Spending By .6 Percent In April, The Best In 5 Months. “Americans boosted their spending by 0.6 percent in April, the biggest increase in five months, while a gauge of inflation remained at the Federal Reserve’s optimal level for a second straight month.” (Martin Crutsinger, “US Consumer Spending Up 0.6 Percent, Best In 5 Months,” The Associated Press, 5/31/18)

·         The Increase In Consumer Spending Is “Encouraging” And Economists Hope That It Will Translate To Increased Growth In The Second Quarter. “The Commerce Department said Thursday that last month’s increase in consumer spending was the largest increase since a 0.7 percent rise last November. The gain is an encouraging sign that consumer spending is beginning to show life after nearly stalling out at the beginning of the year. Economists are hoping a revived consumer sector will support stronger growth in the current quarter.” (Martin Crutsinger, “US Consumer Spending Up 0.6 Percent, Best In 5 Months,” The Associated Press, 5/31/18)

SMALL BUSINESSES AND SEVERAL ECONOMIC SECTORS CONTINUED TO THRIVE IN MAY

Record High Small Business Confidence Is Translating Into More Jobs

The Metlife & U.S. Chamber Of Commerce Small Business Index Hit Another Record High In May 2018, Driven By “Confidence In Local Economies.” “How high can small business optimism go? That’s the question that comes from the latest MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. The index hit 68.7 in Q2, up 2.4 points from Q1 – another record high – driven by confidence in local economies.” (Sean Hackbarth, “Small Business Optimism Keeps Going Up,” U.S. Chamber Of Commerce, 5/31/18)

Forty-Eight Percent Of Small Business Feel “Good About Their Local Economies” Tying The Highest Level In The History Of The Index. “Forty-eight percent felt good about their local economies. That’s tied for the highest level in the history of the Index.” (Sean Hackbarth, “Small Business Optimism Keeps Going Up,” U.S. Chamber Of Commerce, 5/31/18)

Sixty-Two Percent Of Small Business Owners Expect Higher Revenues One Year From Now And Owners “Remain Optimistic.” “It also should be noted a majority of small businesses owners expect higher earnings and 62% expect higher revenues one year from now. ‘Small business owners remain optimistic and by taking action to help alleviate some of their current obstacles and ensure opportunity, we will in turn further increase Main Street optimism,’ said Suzanne Clark, senior executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.” (Sean Hackbarth, “Small Business Optimism Keeps Going Up,” U.S. Chamber Of Commerce, 5/31/18)

Approximately One Third Of Small Businesses Are Planning To Hire More Employees In The Next Year, And Sixty-One Percent Of Small Businesses With More Than 100 Employees Plan To Add Staff. “Economic optimism is translating into more jobs. This past quarter, 18% said they added to staff in versus 16% in the first quarter of the year. About one-third plan to hire more in the next year with larger companies more likely to do so. Sixty-one percent of small businesses with more than 100 employees expect to add to staff.” (Sean Hackbarth, “Small Business Optimism Keeps Going Up,” U.S. Chamber Of Commerce, 5/31/18)

The Manufacturing And Healthcare Sectors Also Continued To Grow In May

Manufacturing Employment Continued To Trend Upward In May, Adding 18,000 Jobs. “Manufacturing employment continued to expand over the month (+18,000). Durable goods accounted for most of the change, including an increase of 6,000 jobs in machinery. Manufacturing employment has risen by 259,000 over the year, with about three-fourths of the growth in durable goods industries.” (“Employment Situation News Release,” Bureau Of Labor Statistics6/1/18)

·         The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index Was 56.4 Marking The Second Strongest Improvement In 4 Years, “Reflecting Sharp Expansions In Output And New Orders.” “ The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.4 in May 2018, little-changed from the preliminary estimate of 56.6 and April’s final 56.5. The reading marked the second-strongest improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector since September 2014, reflecting sharp expansions in output and new orders.” (“United States Manufacturing PMI,” Trading Economics 6/1/18)

Employment In Heath Care Industries Continued To Trend Up In May, Adding 29,000 Jobs. “Employment in health care rose by 29,000 in May, about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Ambulatory health care services added 18,000 jobs over the month, and employment in hospitals continued to trend up (+6,000).” (“Employment Situation News Release,” Bureau Of Labor Statistics6/1/18)

Construction Employment Continued To Trend Up In May, Adding 25,000 Jobs. “Employment in construction continued on an upward trend in May (+25,000) and has risen by  286,000 over the past 12 months. Within the industry, nonresidential specialty trade  contractors added 15,000 jobs over the month.” (“Employment Situation News Release,” Bureau Of Labor Statistics6/1/18)

 

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s